CIC continues its longstanding commitment to prevention strategies with a new project that focuses on the operational elements of preventive action.  Focus in the past several years has been predominately on more long-term structural aspects of conflict prevention, such as those strategies that address developmental and institutional concerns and promotion of good governance so, in theory, conflict will not occur.  However, since certain conflicts are inevitable, the Operational Conflict Prevention project aims to better understand the political aspects of prevention by analyzing the kinds of decisions and political choice sets which actors in a conflict situation face.  These include critical decisions about the role of the police and military, the justice system, power and wealth sharing, as well as wider considerations of a conflict’s history, economy and internal political dimensions.  CIC seeks to determine those choices which have the greatest effect on a potential conflict, the motivations behind such choices, and the impact that preventive diplomacy can have on the outcome of these choices—which can ultimately determine a pathway either to war or peace. 

Determining these factors will enable CIC to identify how external actors, such as the UN, can positively influence the incentive structures and strategies of these domestic political actors. This research will allow CIC to emphasize the UN’s capacities in comparison to regional organizations and to make recommendations about the creation of more effective and collaborative conflict prevention initiatives between international and regional institutions.

In past work, CIC has undertaken a study on UN political actors in conflict prevention with the support of the UN’s Department of Political Affairs (DPA) and the Government of Sweden, and contributed to the UN’s Report of the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Armed Conflict.  With this project, CIC will work with DPA and the Mediation Support Unit on the development of case studies and workshops.

Project Staff: Richard Gowan, Elsina Wainwright, Sara Batmanglich

Funder: UK Global Conflict Prevention Pool, Ford Foundation