For Foreign Policy, CIC's James Traub breaks down what a Biden presidency would mean for U.S. foreign-policy and the Middle East.
"The Middle East would almost certainly be demoted under a President Biden—but how far? One senior advisor—who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign—predicts that the Middle East would be “a distant fourth” in the order of priorities, after Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and Latin America."
In the third Foreign Policy column of his series about a possible Biden presidency, CIC senior fellow James Traub details Biden's attitudes toward China.
"Biden has simply learned that beating up on China has become a cost-free way to prove your toughness. That wasn’t true even when he left office; his new bellicosity demonstrates how very quickly the consensus on China has shifted both in the broad public and among policymakers."
In this Foreign Policy column, CIC senior fellow James Traub writes about what a Biden presidency could mean for neoliberalism as a dogma in foreign-policy.
"Some elements of a Biden foreign policy would almost certainly move left as a dependent variable of domestic policy. Biden uses the expression “a foreign policy for the middle class” to express the idea that trade and international economic policy must be guided by the benefits they will bring to average Americans—rather than to American multinationals."
For the first column of a Foreign Policy series about Joe Biden’s foreign-policy vision, CIC's James Traub talked with Biden's team members to learn more about their perspective.
"What would it mean to rally democracies without fighting a new cold war, and without pretending to the status of undisputed leadership the United States had 70 years ago? The first order of business, as Biden notes in his Foreign Affairs essay, is 'renewing democracy at home.'"
CIC's Barnett Rubin was interviewed by PolitiFact about the participation of U.S. State Department officials in the 2020 presidential political campaign.
""The more that foreign policy is — and is seen to be — used for purely partisan objectives, the less other countries will believe that the policy will carry over to the next administration. If they do not like the policy, it encourages them to wait it out till the next election rather than to respond immediately"," Rubin told PolitiFact.
CIC's Barnett Rubin was interviewed by TOLOnews about former National Security Advisor John Bolton's new book, and what it reveals about President Trump's policy on Afghanistan.
"The main thing it shows is that President Trump doesn’t know anything about Afghanistan, he doesn’t care about Afghanistan. He just wants to get out of Afghanistan, but he wants to get out of Afghanistan in a way that is good for his reelection and that he doesn’t care about anything else at all," Rubin is quoted saying.
The protests that have roiled the United States over the past weeks are rooted in an issue at the heart of the divisions in American society: racism. But they also take place in a climate of increasing inequality and polarization. This briefing by Sarah Cliffe draws on comparative global analysis to ask whether the US now risks large-scale civil conflict.
In a new column for Foreign Policy, CIC senior fellow James Traub writes about the post-pandemic struggle for global prestige and economic dominance, and argues that both the U.S. and China are losing the fight.
"If some model has emerged as the winner of this dreadful sweepstakes, it is not China’s authoritarian one but rather that of the democracies that share China’s 'Asian values' of collective discipline, deference to authority, and faith in the state," Traub said.
The paper Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy examines impacts of the major transformation in international energy markets that has begun. The United States is poised to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer and, combined with new developments in natural gas, is on track to become the dominant player in global energy markets. Meanwhile, China is in place to surpass the United States in its scale of oil imports, and has already edged out the U.S. in carbon emissions.
America, Rising Powers, and the Tension between Rivalry and Restraint
"What’s become clear to me is that while the rising powers--principally China, India, Brazil, but also Turkey, Indonesia, Korea and others--want to increase their influence and protect their interests, the United States still occupies a central place in their thinking and their strategies. And only the U.S. can help all these players forge an effective international order." —Bruce Jones
In late 2011, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, the Center for American Progress, and the Stanley Foundation formed a study group of US and Chinese experts, including CIC Director Bruce Jones, to evaluate the role of the G-20 in the US-China bilateral relationship as well as how the relationship influences the G-20. After meeting for two conferences over the course of 2012, the group reached consensus on a set of recommendations to improve the efficacy of this important body.